So if the 1980's farm crisis was the reason for the downtick in farmers age 45-54 then would not the next youngest age bracket be the recipient of the downturn? If so, then why do we not see a strong uptick in that age group? Maybe I'm missing something. I think what you will see moving forward is a slight uptick in younger farmers, but the largest majority of farm acres that transition will transition to existing farmers.
I am in the farm supply industry and farms in our state that do go out of business almost always sell to an existing farm. There are several reasons for that. It takes time to get a large enough line of credit and the farmer that is liquidating doesn't want the hassle of having multiple buyers and multiple legal transactions. Plus, existing farmers have long social relationships with their neighbors.
I think you are spot on here. The way I was thinking about it is that the 45-54 age group either didn't get started on the farm or quickly dropped out. Your comment does a great job answering where those acres might have gone instead -- consolidation with those farms who were able to stick it out (not necessarily skipping a generation those that are younger, or at least not yet).
So if the 1980's farm crisis was the reason for the downtick in farmers age 45-54 then would not the next youngest age bracket be the recipient of the downturn? If so, then why do we not see a strong uptick in that age group? Maybe I'm missing something. I think what you will see moving forward is a slight uptick in younger farmers, but the largest majority of farm acres that transition will transition to existing farmers.
I am in the farm supply industry and farms in our state that do go out of business almost always sell to an existing farm. There are several reasons for that. It takes time to get a large enough line of credit and the farmer that is liquidating doesn't want the hassle of having multiple buyers and multiple legal transactions. Plus, existing farmers have long social relationships with their neighbors.
Thank you for the thoughtful comment, Cliff!
I think you are spot on here. The way I was thinking about it is that the 45-54 age group either didn't get started on the farm or quickly dropped out. Your comment does a great job answering where those acres might have gone instead -- consolidation with those farms who were able to stick it out (not necessarily skipping a generation those that are younger, or at least not yet).